SEC football conference championship odds updated ahead of 2023 season

Nov 29, 2023

Will Georgia's reign atop the SEC continue in 2023? Can the league put two teams in the College Football Playoff if one doesn't reach the conference title game? These are questions that will be answered a few months from now before the league goes to a 16-team, no-divisions look in 2024 with the arrival of Texas and Oklahoma.

For now, there is one more season to enjoy SEC football as we've known it for two decades before realignment adds two more power programs to the mix. According to Caesar's Sportsbook's updated odds, there are three SEC teams at +450 or better with a shot at winning the league this season and several others just outside the notable frontrunners who could make a run and challenge for a spot in Atlanta.

The winner of the SEC Championship Game always makes the playoff. So that's something to watch this fall during the first weekend of December.

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Here is a look at the latest SEC Championship odds for every team in the conference ahead of the new season.

Mississippi State (+12500), Kentucky (+20000), Missouri (+20000), Vanderbilt (75000) are the super-long shots in the SEC. In fact, only two of these programs won a league championship in the SEC. Mississippi State begins the Zach Arnett era this fall, while Kentucky hopes bringing back Liam Coen as offensive coordinator following his one-year stint in the NFL helps out tremendously with a portal-infused unit. Missouri's defense returns most of its production and Vanderbilt is trying to get to bowl eligibility for the first time under Clark Lea.

South Carolina was one of the nation's hottest teams to end the 2022 season after beating nationally-ranked Tennessee and Clemson before falling to Notre Dame in a shootout during bowl season. The Gamecocks welcome back Spencer Rattler and the bulk of their defense, but oddsmakers expect a step back for Shane Beamer's team (6.5 wins, projected). At Arkansas, Sam Pittman's coaching staff has several new pieces and the Razorbacks' roster is heavy on transfer portal additions. Veterans KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders return to lead offensively.

There is pressure to win in Gainesville. There is pressure to win at all SEC programs. But to see Florida at +6000 odds given the Gators' projected win total of 5.5 this season comes as a bit of a surprise. These SEC Championship odds would suggest oddsmakers respect Billy Napier as a coach who can potentially figure it out in Year 2, even as a considerable longshot. The Gators plugged a couple glaring holes through the transfer portal with a top-20 class this cycle, but more is needed at several positions. Keep an eye on this team early.

Lane Kiffin reached into the portal for several impact additions this cycle on both sides of the football, but the Rebels' best shot at getting to Atlanta and unseating LSU atop the SEC West is handing the football to Quinshon Judkins and letting him run. He has a chance to be one of the nation's top rushers this fall and this offense has done all it can to alleviate some of the pressure with notable weaponry. Ole Miss takes on Tulane, which beat USC in the Cotton Bowl last season, early prior to SEC play. That's quite a tune-up against a top-25 opponent for the Rebels.

Could Auburn get to the SEC Championship in Hugh Freeze's first season? Highly unlikely. The Tigers do, however, like what they assembled along the offensive line, within their wide receiver room and at quarterback with the acquisition of Michigan State's Payton Thorne. He competes with Robby Ashford for first-team reps in August. It takes more than a few months to change a culture and it's quite difficult with a host of transfers, but Freeze is doing everything in his power to make sure his first season on the Plains goes above outside expectations.

Tennessee behind Texas A&M in SEC Championship odds? That's a surprise. The Volunteers return nearly every starter on defense from a team that won 11 games last fall, capped by a victory over Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Tennessee went into November inside the College Football Playoff rankings' top 5 before the train came off the tracks at Georgia and South Carolina. Josh Heupel's offense is going to produce this season despite losing Hendon Hooker and his top two wideouts. Tennessee's back and at +1400, there's a sizable return opportunity here.

The SEC's fourth-most likely team to win the league title this fall according to oddsmaker, Texas A&M is trying to bounce back from a lackluster 2022 campaign under Jimbo Fisher. He reconfigured his gameplan offensively after bringing in Bobby Petrino and his roster was able to absorb a mass exodus of players to the portal. Glancing at the two-deep, the Aggies' calling card will be on defense, where coordinator DJ Durkin has some athleticism at all three levels with which to work.

Mark it down — LSU will be the trendy pick to win the SEC West at conference media days next month in Nashville. Not quite as talented as Georgia or Alabama, there's no noticeable holes in the roster and there's a couple transfer additions that will be in the two-deep in starring roles (including former Notre Dame running back and recent pickup Logan Diggs). Brian Kelly is well ahead of schedule after winning 10 games in his first season and already has a head-to-head decision over Saban in his back pocket. This time around, he has to win in Tuscaloosa to take the division, however.

Can Nick Saban thrive in the underdog role? After scrambling to sign a quarterback out of the portal coming out of spring, Alabama is in the unfamiliar situation of a legitimate competition at the position heading into fall camp in a few months as a preseason top 10 that's loaded everywhere else. Saban has two new coordinators, a top-ranked 2023 signing class filled with early-impact guys and a schedule that heats up early with a Week 2 showdown against Texas. That should prepare the Crimson Tide as they try and get back to Atlanta after a one-year hiatus.

The favorite to win the SEC and take a third-consecutive national championship, the Georgia Bulldogs are the team to beat nationally and have a gigantic target on their backs with the nation's longest winning streak entering the fall. Despite a plethora of NFL Draft exits on defense, Kirby Smart has continued to reload on that side of the football and the Bulldogs shouldn't miss a beat offensively either with Mike Bobo assuming the role of offensive coordinator and Carson Beck (projected) as the team's starting quarterback in the post-Stetson Bennett era.